Dr. John Harper

Perhaps the most obvious sign is the recovery in the stock market. Be careful though…many of the companies that are doing well in the stock market today are because of cost reductions, not revenue growth. The recovery is real but very fragile. However, there is much more to consider and not all of it is positive. The two indicators to watch are the unemployment rate and bank lending. I fear that the USA and even other parts of the global economy are headed for stagflation. The national unemployment rate is now close to 10%…the effective rate is much higher than that when one considers underemployment. Texas is doing better than that but not unaffected. Until people are confident about their job, they will not spend. Without consumption of goods and services, businesses will not survive. Banks will not lend so long as businesses are not prospering. So, there is now growth in the economy…not a recession…but very sluggish growth. Combine the sluggish growth with the extraordinarily high levels of government spending and you have set the stage for double-digit inflation in a stagnant economy. Until a significant number of jobs are created by the private sector, there will not be an enduring rebound. I predict the private sector will not be able to fully respond for at least 18-24 months.”

– Dr. John Harper
Mayor of Rowlett and CFO of The Cooper Institute

John Gavin

“Our SBA lending in DFW is up and when small business is expanding, the economy as a whole is improving.”

– John Gavin
Wells Fargo